Holdem Question #2

You have AcKh in the SB.

The button open-raises. You 3bet. The BB calls. The BB has a tendency to call preflop and could have a very wide range of hands here.

Let's also assume that the BB is neither exceptionally weak or strong so basically you can't really categorize him neatly into a category of making big mistakes in one direction or another.

The flop is Qc 2c 8c.

You bet the flop, BB calls, button folds.

The turn is a 3s.

What do you do? What do you do if he raises?

Btw, I haven't forgotten to comment on the first holdem question. One thing that only Chris mentioned is bluffing profile which I think is a very important consideration in that decision. I'm still working out my thoughts on that hand.

I'd be inclined to bet again. It's kind of a mix of a semi-bluff and a semi-value bet, as there are a fair number of hands he would call the flop bet with that you can beat (most likely Kc-x). Also, since you've represented a big hand by 3-betting out of the BB, it is difficult for him to raise you on the turn without a big hand. Betting also disguises your hand to some extent, so if a club comes you might get him to raise you if he has the Kc.

If he raises the turn, you of course are not going to fold. Being out of position, I don't see an argument for 3-betting (which I would at least consider if I was in position), so to me calling is the only choice. What would be a difficult decision is if an A or K comes on the river. I probably would pay off, but I expect to be beaten most of the time if the BB bets.

Sorry for the semi-disjointed thoughts. Hope they make some sense.

I bet. If he raises I reraise. I'm pretty sure I have 9 clubs and 3 aces and 3 kings to win, and don't want him taking control of the hand. I'm gonna go by Russ' rule of 7 here. Assuming we are heads up, and there is no cap, I will not stop raising before he does. I want to put the last raise in. EVEN if he already has a flush, has two pair, or a set, you still have outs for the nuts. I'm not slowing down on this one. Also, if another club comes on the river the most you are getting from him at that point is one bet, so get as much as you can in now. If it were no-limit I'd push.

After his 4th bet, every bet you put in is likely to be losing money. I think i do like reraising more than I do just calling as I said I'd do earlier since it does cloak your flush draw some, but going to 5 or 7 seems extreme. He's not folding here or on the river and 5 bets would be a decent sign that you held the nuts or a redraw to it which would kill your action if you hit the river flush (unless he has the K high flush and puts you on something like Jacks w/the redraw) or an ace to trump his lower pair.

I bet, if he raises I'd tend to think he has some pocket pair or a set. Queens or 8s are also possible. I'd call his raise, probably betting if I hit the flush, check call a King (KcQx is possible IMO) and probably bet an Ace. I doubt you get an opportunity to checkraise if an Ace or club hits since the way you've played your hands seems alot like Ace something w/a club. The king may catch him by surprise or not, but since KQ is a possible holding in my mind for a checkraise, I'd prefer to play it conservatively because I tend to be a calling station.

I did some more work on it but got bored. Basically, I assumed the BB would defend with all hands so i didn't eliminate any combinations before the flop. That left ~1065 possible combinations on the turn but I eliminated about ~200 of those that I thought would fold on the flop (any hand w/2 cards between 9 and 2 that did not have at least a 3 card open ended straight draw) and ended up with about 840. You were drawing dead to about 19 of those and behind another ~400 of them to varying levels ranging from 4:1 dog to 2:1. There were another ~76 that had a reasonable straight draw that might call or raise you (87, T8, QT, KQ, KT)...personally, I'd view all of those except for 87 to be potentially worthy of a raise. I also included some ace high stragglers (A7-A3) that might go to the river.

After all was said and done, there were only about 35% of the remaining ~840 hands that I felt would fold nearly for certain (though I'd still consider that maybe 10% of those could attempt to bluff you if you bet here or on a blank river) and you currently lead those hands 9:1.

You were about a 3:2 dog against the hands you were currently behind, & perhaps a 2:1 favorite against the ~100 or so hands that I felt were currently behind but strong enough to see the river. That was about where I stopped and left work early for the day because I didn't even want to start thinking about all the different things that could happen on the river.

But for a bluffing profile, I think that the straight draw hands and about 10% of the mucked hands would be reasonable. That's about ~112 or roughly 13% of hands that will take the pot from you the 2 of 3 times that you miss on the river. That increases the number of times that you don't improve & lose this pot (+ 2 additional bets) from about~ 50% to 63%...that is, assuming that you muck on the river if he checkraises the turn and you miss the river. You could probably refine this & eliminate those hands you felt would have reraised before the flop (e.g. AK, AQ, 55+, KQ, etc.) or he wouldn't defend with and come up with something more reasonable, but I don't have enough data to figure out what's a reasonable defense range. Prock might and he could probably be of great assistance to you in examining this situation.

Trying to figure out the river actions, specifically which flush cards you could bet seemed like too much work and would realistically require better defining his range. In all likelihood the 3,4,5, & 6 of the suit would be relatively safe, but since 93,94,95, & 96 are in his range, they'd be just as dangerous as say the T of that suit even thought T9 would be in most defensive ranges but not 93.